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The Canadian Union of Postal Workers says a ‘No’ vote should mean both sides get back to the bargaining table.

The Crown corporation says it won’t speculate, but stresses that it’s losing $10 million a day during the labour dispute, thanks to nervous customers seeking safer delivery options.

Could a lockout or layoffs be next? Absolutely, say labour experts.

“I think layoffs are the next step for Canada Post if the deal is rejected,” said Steven Tufts, a labour studies professor at York University. “And I think it will be.” 

The only questions, said Tufts, is how many layoffs, and how soon.

“If it’s rejected, does Canada Post come back to the table and threaten layoffs, or is it shock and awe and they just do it?,” said Tufts. Either way, he added, it’s a pretty safe bet. “It’s going to happen.” 

Locking workers out is also a distinct possibility, argued Rafael Gomez, director of the University of ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½â€™s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources.

With the union’s current “strike action” limited to a ban on overtime, that means the Crown corporation is paying all its members their full salary, despite dwindling revenues, Gomez said.

“The incentive for a lockout is there for the employer,� said Gomez.

For McMaster University labour studies professor Stephanie Ross, a lockout poses a risk for Canada Post: The small businesses who are its most reliable customers would be even more likely to bail — perhaps permanently.

“If the issue with the strike action is that customers can’t put up with more uncertainty, then why would they lock people out?,” Ross argued.

Even layoffs would be likely to provoke a strong reaction from the union, and further upset frustrated workers.

“If they do layoffs, it could really backfire,” said Ross.

The Crown corporation, argued Ross, is caught between a rock and a hard place. Carry on as-is, losing $10 million a day, or risk angering workers and the union even more, and seeing them harden their position.

“The employer’s kind of caught,” said Ross. “I don’t know how much room they have to maneuver except to come back to the table.â€�

With the federal government already trying to cut costs across various agencies at Crown corporations including CBC and VIA Rail, Canada Post may very well decide to settle on a richer deal, knowing that the government could order a broader restructuring down the road anyway, Ross said.

“In some ways, it might be better for them to get a deal and then wait for whatever the government does,” Ross said. “In some ways it doesn’t matter how expensive the contract is if you’re going to downsize anyway.â€�

Voting — both online and via phone — began Monday at 7 a.m., and runs until 5 p.m. Aug. 1.

Canada Post spokesperson Jon Hamilton said the Crown corporation is hopeful workers support the offer, but declined to speculate on potential next steps if it’s rejected.

“If the vote is positive, the offers become new collective agreements effective until Jan. 31, 2028. If not, Canada Post won’t speculate other than to say the uncertainty will continue,” Hamilton said in a written statement, which also reiterated the $10 million-a-day the company says it lost in June.

Last week, CUPW national president urged her members to vote ‘No,’ calling the government-ordered vote an attack on the collective bargaining process.

“A strong NO vote not only rejects these bad offers, but it also protects our future and the integrity of the bargaining process,” Simpson said in a bulletin on the union’s website. “It shows both Canada Post and this government that postal workers stand united.” 

On May 28, Canada Post made what it called its “finalâ€� contract offer, which includes a 13 per cent wage hike spread over four years, as well as a $1,000 signing bonus. Two days later, it asked federal jobs minister Patty Hajdu to order a vote on the offer.Ìý

On June 12, Hajdu ordered the CIRB to organize a vote.ÌýThe order came roughly a month after a key report from veteran mediator William Kaplan, who said the Crown corporation was effectively insolvent.