The leading international authority on food crises said Tuesday that the “worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out in Gaza.” It predicted “widespread death†without immediate action.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, said Gaza has been on the brink of famine for two years, and that recent developments, including “increasingly stringent blockades†by Israel, have “dramatically worsened†the situation.
Even though Israel on the territory in May, aid groups say only a trickle of assistance is getting into the enclave and that Palestinians face catastrophic levels of hunger 21 months into the Israeli offensive launched after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
For months, U.N. officials, aid groups and experts have warned that Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are on the brink of famine without formally declaring one. (July 22, 2025)
AP VideoHundreds as they try to reach aid sites or convoys, according to witnesses, health officials and the United Nations’ human rights office. The military says it has only fired warning shots.
The IPC warning stopped short of a formal declaration of famine. Here’s why:
The IPC and aid groups says Gaza’s hunger crisis is worsening
Gaza’s population of roughly 2 million Palestinians relies almost entirely on outside aid. Israel’s offensive has wiped out what was already limited local food production. Israel’s blockade, along with ongoing fighting and chaos inside the territory, has further limited people’s access to food.
The U.N. World Food Program says Gaza’s hunger crisis has reached “new and astonishing levels of desperation.” Nearly 100,000 women and children are suffering from severe acute malnutrition, and a third of Gaza’s population is going days without eating, Ross Smith, the agency’s director for emergencies, said Monday.
The Gaza Health Ministry says there have been 82 malnutrition-related deaths in Gaza this month, including 24 children. It did not give their exact cause of death. The ministry, part of the Hamas-run government, is staffed by medical professionals and its figures on war deaths as the most reliable estimate of casualties.
Famine occurs when these conditions are met
The IPC was first set up in 2004 during the famine in Somalia. It includes more than a dozen U.N. agencies, aid groups, governments and other bodies.
Famine can appear in pockets — sometimes small ones — and a formal classification requires caution.
The IPC has only declared famine a few times — in Somalia in 2011, and South Sudan in 2017 and 2020, and last year in parts of Sudan’s western Darfur region. Tens of thousands are believed to have died in Somalia and South Sudan.
It rates an area as in famine when all three of these conditions are confirmed:
— 20% of households have an extreme lack of food, or are essentially starving.
— At least 30% of children 6 months to 5 years old suffer from acute malnutrition, based on a weight-to-height measurement; or 15% of that age group suffer from acute malnutrition based on the circumference of their upper arm.
— At least two people, or four children under 5, per 10,000 are dying daily due to starvation or the interaction of malnutrition and disease.
Gaza poses a major challenge for experts because Israel severely limits access to the territory, making it difficult and in some cases impossible to gather data.
The IPC said Tuesday that data indicate famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of Gaza, and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City.
Famine declarations usually come from the UN or governments
While the IPC says it is the “primary mechanism†used by the international community to conclude whether a famine is happening or projected, it typically doesn’t make such a declaration itself.
Often, U.N. officials together with governments will make a formal statement based on an analysis from the IPC.
But the IPC says once a famine is declared it’s already too late. While it can prevent further deaths, it means many people will have died by the time a famine is declared.
It’s not always clear that hunger is the cause of death
Most cases of severe malnutrition in children arise through a combination of lack of nutrients along with an infection, leading to diarrhea and other symptoms that cause dehydration, said Alex de Waal, author of “Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine†and executive director of the World Peace Foundation.
“There are no standard guidelines for physicians to classify cause of death as ‘malnutrition’ as opposed to infection,” he said.
When famine occurs, there are often relatively few deaths from hunger alone. Far more people die from a combination of malnutrition, disease and other forms of deprivation. All of these count as excess deaths — separate from violence — that can be attributed to a food crisis or famine, he said.
The war has made it hard to get accurate information
Israel’s offensive and displaced some 90% of its population. With hospitals damaged and overwhelmed by war casualties, it can be difficult to screen people for malnutrition and collect precise data on deaths.
“Data and surveillance systems are incomplete and eroded,” said James Smith, an emergency doctor and lecturer in humanitarian policy at the University College London who spent more than two months in Gaza.
“Which means that all health indicators — and the death toll — are known to be an underestimation,†he said.
Even when famine is declared, the response can be lacking
A declaration of famine should in theory galvanize the international community to rush food to those who need it. But with aid budgets already stretched, and war and politics throwing up obstacles, that doesn’t always happen.
“There is not a big, huge bank account†to draw on, said OCHA’s Laerke. “The fundamental problem is that we build the fire engine as we respond.â€
Aid groups say plenty of food and other aid has been gathered on Gaza’s borders, but Israel is allowing only a small amount to enter. Within Gaza, gunfire, chaos and looting have
The international pressure led Israel to over the weekend, including daily humanitarian pauses in fighting in parts of Gaza and airdrops of food. Israel says there’s no limit on how many aid trucks can enter Gaza.
U.N. agencies say Israeli restrictions, and the breakdown of law and order, make it difficult to distribute the food that does come in.
“Only a massive scale-up in food aid distributions can stabilize this spiraling situation, calm anxieties and rebuild the trust within communities that more food is coming,†the World Food Program said. “An agreed ceasefire is long overdue.â€
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Associated Press writers Bassem Mroue in Beirut and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed.
