A funny thing happened on the way to summer movie season: a young girl and her blue space alien pal beat up Tom Cruise.
It happened at the North American box office, where Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch†had a bigger Memorial Day weekend opening ($182.6 million U.S.) than “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning†($79 million).
“Everyone expected (the opposite) because Tom Cruise is ‘Mr. Movies’ and all that,†said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, one of the industry’s most authoritative trend watchers.
“But if you look at the data, PG-rated movies and family films have just been on a tear since ‘The Super Mario Bros. Movie.’ So I always expected that ‘Lilo’ would beat ‘Mission.’â€
“Lilo & Stitch,†a live-action remake of a 2002 animated comedy, was originally intended for streaming only. Instead, it became a stealth blockbuster at theatres. Then again, blockbusters have always been a kind of surprise.
The wartime bombing term became Hollywood jargon 50 years ago this week when Steven Spielberg’s “Jaws†rewrote the theatrical exhibition playbook. The shark-attack thriller opened on an unprecedented 450 movie screens in Canada and the U.S. and became the first film to gross $100 million, earning more than $260 million worldwide during its long initial run.
The blockbuster concept caught on, but not every big film of that era initially qualified as one. “Star Wars†had a limited release in the summer of 1977. “It opened on a Wednesday in just a handful of theatres, and then it went wider and just played for months on end,†Dergarabedian said.
Blockbusters have since become known mostly as franchise films based on well-known characters and stories, featuring A-list actors and released on several thousand screens.
To many minds, the term doesn’t include family films such as “Lilo & Stitch†and “A Minecraft Movie,†released in April, although it should: both are likely to hit the $1-billion global box-office mark.
Disney’s new Pixar film, “Elio,†an animated alien-abduction comedy opening this weekend, will be testing the public appetite for all-new stories. Warner Bros. successfully did that this past April with Ryan Coogler’s vampire film, “Sinners,†which is still in theatres.
These days, Dergarabedian said, what defines a blockbuster is more “in the eye of the beholder.â€Â
As the movie industry continues to rebound from the pandemic, more — and bigger — movies are arriving to meet, or otherwise induce, major demand, hoping audiences will be there to support them. It’s never a sure thing, as Disney discovered recently with its live-action “Snow White.” The film bombed with critics and moviegoers alike, failing to recoup its budget of close to $270 million.
The overall trend is optimistic, however. This year’s Memorial Day box-office take was the highest ever, and even second-place “Mission: Impossible†is the highest-grossing instalment of the eight-film series.
This summer could be “one of the best ever†for big movies, Dergarabedian said, even if some of them don’t necessarily meet the standard definition of blockbusters.Â
“I think we’ll get to over $4 billion (in box office). There are so many potential blockbusters out there, including many I personally want to see. ‘Superman’ is at the top of my list, ‘F1’ is No. 2. It really is a blockbuster-filled movie season.â€
Will we be referring to all of the big hits as blockbusters, though? Here are 10 of this summer’s most anticipated films, with notes on their blockbuster potential.
28 Years Later (June 20)
Writer-director Danny Boyle and co-writer Alex Garland transport us three decades past the Rage Virus outbreak, with survivors now isolated on a remote U.K. island, facing fresh nightmares.
Pro:Â Audiences have waited years for this long-anticipated new chapter in the zombie epic, which features a cast led by Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Ralph Fiennes and Jodie Comer.
Con: It starts a new trilogy rather than completing an earlier one, which may confuse and disappoint fans. Also, original star Cillian Murphy isn’t in this one, although he’ll appear in subsequent editions.
F1: The Movie (June 27)
Director Joseph Kosinski satisfied our collective need for speed with the Tom Cruise flying-ace extravaganza “Top Gun: Maverick†three years ago, one of the first blockbusters of the post-pandemic era. This new film should bring similar thrills to auto racing, with Brad Pitt leading the way.
Pro: If crowds in Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix this month were any indication, there are many fans who want to see Formula One action up close. Pitt will likely draw his own durable fan base.
Con: 2008’s “Speed Racer” and the recent “Grand Turismo” were box-office disappointments. Will speed freaks young and old flock to see action on the ground the way they did the airborne thrills of “Top Gun: Maverick,†which had an earlier hit movie helping to spark interest?
M3GAN 2.0 (June 27)
The AI era’s “Chuckie†doll is back and out of her alpha phase. The first “M3GAN†was low-budget, high-return fun — exactly the kind of bets the horror heads at Blumhouse and Atomic Monster (the film’s producers) love to make.
Pro: Already sparking a dance craze on social media, “M3GAN 2.0†arrives meme-ready to capitalize on emerging anxieties about artificial intelligence and its potential threats.
Con: Are actual job-killing robots turning off interest in the (fictional) killing ones? It’s possible some audiences might not care to pay to see themes that “Black Mirror†has been reflecting for many seasons.
Jurassic World Rebirth (July 2)
Bus ads for this movie feature dinosaurs on a rampage and minimal text, suggesting this latest attempt at a franchise revival — sorry, rebirth — is sticking to the basics: terrible lizards, equally terrible safety standards.Â
Pro: “Jurassic Park,†the T. rex of ’90s blockbusters, tore claw marks through industry records when it opened in 1993. It remains to be seen if the “Rebirth†dinos have bite.Â
Con: Alas, recent “Jurassic†joints haven’t just lacked bite — they bite, full stop.
Superman (July 11)
While the Marvel Cinematic Universe tries to rekindle past glories with “T³ó³Ü²Ô»å±ð°ù²ú´Ç±ô³Ù²õ*†and the like, DC’s original superstar superhero hopes to swoop in and stand tall before a new generation of fans.
Pro: Writer-director James Gunn, defecting from one comic-verse to another, has convinced many moviegoers with his “Guardians of the Galaxy†instalments that they’re in for a good time.
Con: “Superman†rests on the shoulders of David Corenswet, a leading man possibly still in the making. Meanwhile, DC Universe films have been tougher sells than their MCU counterparts.Â
Smurfs (July 18)
Rihanna stars as Smurfette in this live-action/animated musical-comedy featuring the titular blue crew, directed by Chris Miller of “Puss in Boots†and “Shrek the Third.â€
Pro: The “Trolls†movies have done very well. If the “Smurfs†songs are catchy — again Rihanna — repeated viewings in cinema and at home could very well spell big green for the short blue folks.
Con: Though the 2011 film “The Smurfs” reaped hundreds of millions, 2013’s “The Smurfs 2†and 2017’s “Smurfs: The Lost Village†delivered diminishing returns. But do we need to say it again? RiRi.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25)
“WandaVision†director Matt Shakman looks to bring some modern MCU heft — and maybe a bit of cheek — to the “Fantastic Four†characters, who, in the past 20 years have failed to gain meaningful traction on screen.
Pro: Pedro Pascal leads the quad squad, backed up by Vanessa Kirby, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Joseph Quinn. And as each Fantastic Four character is playable in the hit game “Marvel Rivals,†younger audiences might be excited to see more.
Con: Is it possible these Four just aren’t that Fantastic? If this second reboot fails again, we might have our answer.Â
The Bad Guys 2 (Aug. 1)
The sequel to 2022’s hit animated comedy features returning voices (including Awkwafina, Sam Rockwell and Marc Maron) and creative muscle (like director Pierre Perifel) as the franchise continues adapting Aaron Blabey’s graphic novels.
Pro: “The Bad Guys 2†has timed its release near the tail end of the summer’s dog days, meaning an AC-cooled auditorium might be just the ticket for crowds of panting kids and parents.
Con: There may not be one. Animated sequels tend to do well, so this heist isn’t likely to go sideways.
Nobody 2 (Aug. 15)
The first “Nobody†pleased most everybody with Bob Odenkirk’s unique brand of middle-aged John Wickitude. This time, the action’s directed by Timo Tjahjanto, an alumni of TIFF’s Midnight Madness section (2024’s “The Shadow Straysâ€).
Pro: “Nobody ruins his vacation,†the film’s poster reads. Who among us can’t relate? Moviegoers on their own summer staycation might be right at home here.Â
Con: While genre fans can appreciate the ultraviolence, others simply can’t or won’t on principle. And the recent “Ballerina,†a “Wickâ€-adjacent pic, underperformed.
Caught Stealing (Aug. 29)
Darren Aronofsky’s latest, a crime thriller, seems a mite more exciting than his previous film (“The Whaleâ€). Set in the 1990s, it stars Austin Butler as a baseball player who, outside the game, is rounding all the wrong bases.
Pro: Aronofsky’s Bible-themed epic “Noah†(2014) saw epic audience numbers. And can a supporting performance by Bad Bunny, one of the biggest musical acts in the world, help fill seats?
Con: “The Bikeriders,†Butler’s laboured 2023 motorcycle-gang drama made by another American auteur (Jeff Nichols), received middling reviews and essentially broke even at the box office. This type of made-for-grown-ups flicks has a ceiling.
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