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The unemployment rate soared to the highest in Canada. Five thousand manufacturing positions were cut in the last five months, according to the local Chamber of Commerce. Roughly 16 per cent of jobs in the area are dependent on Canada-U.S. trade — double the national average. ÎÚÑ»´«Ã½ sales are down 6.3 per cent this year.

“Everybody’s anxious,” says Tony Crnjac, flashing his pass card and holding a large Tim’s as he twists through the turnstile for a shift at the sprawling Windsor Assembly Plant where Stellantis makes the Chrysler Pacifica, minivans and Dodge Charger Daytona.

“Nobody knows what the leader of the United States is doing right now.”

Call it the Trump slump.

“People are insecure right now and for good reason. I’m concerned, to be honest,” admits Sabrina Roberts, a barista at Chance Coffee in Ford City. It’s an enclave of modest homes nestled between a Ford V-8 engine plant, the automaker’s old test track and its former power plant toward the Detroit River, where lake freighters share the broad waters with boaters, seagulls, perch and walleye under the Motor City’s imposing skyline.   

The small neighbourhood is just up the street from the Chrysler factory and around the corner from a shuttered General Motors transmission plant. In Windsor, the auto industry and its ghosts are never far away.    

“I’m being more mindful of how I spend my money. I think twice,” Roberts adds over the steamy hiss of espresso machines as regulars from the auto plants and elsewhere come in for caffeine and refuge from the steamy heat outside.

Some locals wonder if Canada’s auto industry will survive the tariff challenge. Most talk themselves out of such thoughts because it’s always bounced back from adversity, although the footprint has shrunk over time.     

Remember when Ford used to build cars like the Falcon, the Maverick and the Crown Victoria in Talbotville, south of London? When General Motors made Camaros in Ste.-Therese, Que., and Chrysler assembled full-size vans at a second factory in Windsor?

Maybe not. It’s been a while since they all closed. 

Canadian auto plants assembled three million vehicles in 1999, versus about 1.3 million annually now. Some production has shifted to Mexico and the U.S, which is why massive new electric vehicle battery plants now under construction by Stellantis in Windsor and Volkswagen near St. Thomas created such hope in the last few years.

Then the EV surge cooled and U.S. President Donald Trump began pushing American manufacturers to build everything on home turf by imposing tariffs on Canadian autos, steel, aluminum and other goods not covered by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) that he negotiated — and boasted about — in his first term.

It’s anybody’s guess whether the mercurial Trump will rip up that pact, now that his Aug. 1 deadline for a trade deal with Canada has come and gone. 

“His ass should be hauled into world trade court,” 30-year veteran Jeffrey Smith declares as he arrives early for his afternoon stint on the motor line at Windsor Assembly.     

There was supposed to be a third shift at the factory, which has long been considered a barometer for this border city’s economic health because it’s the only place in town where vehicles are still assembled — and traditionally the biggest employer. But that plan is on hold. There have been production pauses and slowdowns amid tariffs and slower sales.

It’s an abrupt change from last year, when the city was buoyed by glowing economic forecasts and looking ahead to Chrysler’s 100th anniversary this year. Parent company Stellantis, for example, recently posted a loss of $2.7 billion (US) in the first half of 2025 with hopes of a better second half thanks to looming relaunches of vehicles like the Jeep Cherokee.

The financial hit was disappointing, especially at a plant that in the heyday of the minivan was cranking out vehicles on weekends too, padding profits for shareholders and autoworkers’ paycheques with overtime that bankrolled an easier life, nicer houses, new cars, boats, trips and tuition for the kids leaving high school.    

“We’re at 11.2 per cent unemployment, which is never great for a community’s psyche,” says Mayor Drew Dilkens, noting Windsor — which prides itself on resilience and community spirit — is no stranger to swings in the business cycles of the auto industry.   

“We know what a rainy day feels like, and this has that feeling,” he adds. “We’re in that period of time where people are squirreling away their pennies and saying, ‘I’m going to save because I’m not sure what the future looks like.’”

With a new Canada-U.S. trade deal a high-stakes work in progress, people are thinking back to the Great Recession, when Chrysler and General Motors needed government aid to survive, demand for cars crashed and Windsor’s official jobless rate peaked at 15.4 per cent.

That was July 2009. Fast forward to this year with those 5,000 manufacturing jobs already gone as tariffs hit home here, where the iconic Ambassador Bridge to Detroit has long been a symbol of strong trade links and the busiest commercial crossing between Canada and the United States. 

“Even the people who are working are worried,” says John D’Agnolo, president of Unifor Local 200, which represents autoworkers at Ford’s two Windsor engine plants where workers clock overtime — even on weekends — to feed hungry truck factories in Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky. Starting next year, some of those engines will be coming to Ford’s Oakville assembly plant as production of the popular F-series Super Duty truck begins following a retooling. 

The thinking on overtime is, take the money while you can. 

“We have a strong demand and a strong build cycle, but uncertainty,” adds Chad Lawton, the union’s chair of the Windsor Engine Plant.

D’Agnolo cannot shake a sense of bewilderment at the way — as he sees it — Trump has targeted the highly integrated North American auto industry, putting U.S. plants in jeopardy as well if prices soar.

“I have 2,000 members that supply 15,000 members,” D’Agnolo says in reference to the United Auto Workers union at Ford plants across the Detroit River in Dearborn and south along Highway I-75 in Ohio and Kentucky that assemble the profitable F-series trucks.

“Trump is a complete disaster when it comes to understanding our auto industry.”

Asked how the fears compare to the feelings workers have before a potential strike or lockout, where they typically hoard cash and postpone major purchases in the event they are on the picket line for weeks, Lawton says “worse” because they have no control. 

“In this case, you are 100 per cent at the mercy of others.”

Ford Motor Company, based in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn, revealed last week it expects to take a $3 billion (US) hit from tariffs this year. One example of how this is happening: the Ford F-150 pickup D’Agnolo drives has an aluminum body. Trump’s tariff on Canadian aluminum is 50 per cent, adding to the cost of production. 

Bear in mind that Ford is one of the least impacted domestic automakers because of its high proportion of U.S. manufacturing. General Motors has said it is bracing for a tariff hit of up to $5 billion (US) this year. 

“They say the Big 3” — Ford, Stellantis and General Motors — “are absorbing everything so far,” former Chrysler worker Dan Harris says of tariffs. He stresses that this cannot continue indefinitely, meaning tougher days loom.

“It’s just a matter of time.”

Retirees like him — and there are a lot of them in Windsor — feel for their younger compatriots. 

“They shouldn’t be buying a home or anything they can’t afford,” advises Harris, who worked his last shift at the Chrysler plant seven years ago.

He is nursing a noontime Coors Light at the Hook and Ladder, a bar owned by firefighters and open to the public. Like many people in Windsor and Detroit, he says “Chrysler’s” — with an S. It’s the same with “Ford’s.”

Harris is catching up with two buddies, laying out hot Hungarian peppers from his garden for them to take home. The men grumble about the high cost of groceries as CNN blares the latest Trump news on a big screen. But at least the price of beer is right. Pints are $6.50. For the budget-conscious, a Pabst Blue Ribbon is $5.25.

“If Chrysler really starts hurting, that’s most of our jobs in Windsor,” says Tom Lyons, a retired firefighter at the table. 

It’s a rule of thumb in the auto industry that every assembly plant jobs means as many as 10 at parts suppliers, so the ripple effect is huge.

“I’m positive we’ll survive, but I’m not naive to what the threat is,” says Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association and a member of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trade advisory group.

“None of the automakers are headquartered in Canada” Volpe points out, noting that two Canadian assembly plants are on hold — including Stellantis in Brampton and General Motors in Ingersoll, near London. Both are idle, with Brampton awaiting the start of a new Jeep Compass line and GM pausing production of BrightDrop electric delivery vehicles last spring because of low demand. 

Although Detroit auto executives have been pushing back at Trump in Washington, defending the industry’s lengthy history of cross-border supply chains, Volpe’s remark about U.S. head offices speaks to concerns a Canadian facility could become a casualty to appease the president. 

“He may get a couple of wins,” Dilkens, the mayor, says warily. “It’s like ‘Game of Thrones.’ He’s trying to get Canada to bend a knee.”

That hurts extra hard in Windsor, where many people have work and family ties in the Detroit area or are used to popping over for dinner, concerts, shopping and major league sports to cheer the Lions, Tigers, Red Wings and Pistons. It’s one community spanning two countries.

At the Windsor-Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce, president Ryan Donally is turning his mind to new avenues for the region of 410,000 people while supporting the automobile industry and its suppliers.    

“This is an opportunity for businesses that needed a bit of a change from the auto sector. Do we turn to advanced manufacturing, in defence?” he muses, mentioning one of several possibilities and urging the rest of Ontario to pay attention to what’s happening in Windsor.

As part of North America’s largest cluster of tool and die shops that make moulds and other equipment needed for auto production, Windsor is Ground Zero in the trade war. A lack of new orders and layoffs at those smaller companies portend bigger ones at assembly plants on both sides of the border. 

“We are very much a leading indicator of the manufacturing sector,” says Donally, who describes the shock of tariffs to Windsor-Essex as “a little bit” like the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We need Windsor healthy and happy overall for our auto sector,” Volpe stresses.

“Windsor has been up and down, and those who have survived those ups and downs have become hardened. That spirit, that experience, will probably be the ultimate deciding factor in keeping us alive — again.”

One of those survivors, Smith of the motor line, tries to see through what he calls the fog of Trump’s “bullshit.”

Given the relatively low 4.2 per cent unemployment rate in the United States, he joins many experts and workers alike questioning how the U.S. president can realistically expect the auto industry to “re-shore” on the American side of the border. 

Huge factories and the tool and die shops and parts makers that supply them cannot move at the drop of a hat. Even if they could, stranding billions of dollars of assets in Canada, there are not enough trained workers to staff them.

“I just don’t see that happening,” says Smith, shaking his head. “Trump’s only got three-and-a-half years left.”

One recent vote of confidence in Windsor — and Canada — is Taiwan-based Minth Group, which is building a $300-million plant to make EV battery casings. A second plant is now planned to make aluminum, steel and polymer-based parts for EV platforms being manufactured across North America. About 1,100 jobs are expected. 

Whatever the future holds, the next chapter of the Canada-U.S. trade saga has a new character. The Gordie Howe Bridge over the Detroit River, funded by Canada to improve commercial links, will ironically open this fall in the middle of a tariff war.

A five-minute drive west of the Ambassador Bridge that now carries the brunt of truck traffic between the two countries, the Gordie Howe is linked to Highway 401, saving trucks the time it takes to navigate a Windsor thoroughfare lined with strip malls, hotels and restaurants to the rival Ambassador Bridge through a long series of traffic lights.

“It speaks to the future. People are excited about it,” Dilkens says in spite of the fact that fewer Canadians are going to the U.S. because of the trade tensions.

“There has to be a resolution.”